Going into 2020, it seemed like Trump was on course to roll to an easy reelection victory over whomever the Democrats eventually chose as their nominee. Even once it became clear that Biden had locked up the nomination, his obvious mental decline combined with the lack of genuine enthusiasm for his candidacy made it feel like Trump was the prohibitive favorite to win in November.
But that was months ago, before anybody knew what 2020 had in store. Everything has changed, apparently. Polls now show Biden destroying Trump both nationally and in all the major battleground states:
Is Biden really 9 points ahead of Trump nationally? There was even an NY Times poll that came out a week ago that showed Trump down 14 points to Biden nationally.
Is Trump really that unpopular? Is Biden really that popular?
If you go by the news media and social media, absolutely. Social media is all about Black Lives Matter and putting Trump out of his misery.
But something just doesn’t feel right about those poll numbers.
I’ve got some pro-Trump theories on the main factors that will decide the 2020 election:
- The Silent Majority: we’ll get into this more later but the basic idea is that as the country burns and the corporations publicly swear their fealty to BLM, the silent majority of Americans have steeled their resolve to take their country back in the fall. So many people have been red-pilled over the past month or two. Many have been black-pilled (it’s hard not to be with a nonstop feed of America burning on social media). For every clout-chasing white girl on social media posting BLM support, there’s way more people out there who have been Mega Redpilled, and maybe even turned into full-blown racists. They’re just not publicizing it. This is the Silent Majority factor that is working against Biden.
- Virtue Signaling White Women: Are they really going to swing hard towards Biden? The Democrats’ win in the 2018 midterms was widely attributed to suburban moms who were disgusted by Trump’s Twitter account and his “lack of decency”. But the problem with that theory was always this: they didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 in the first place. And it’s not like they didn’t know about Trump’s “lack of decency” in 2016. The “grab ’em by the pussy” tape leaked before the 2016 election. All the angry “pussyhat” ladies were marching and Letting Their Voices Be Heard basically the day after the 2016 election. It’s not as if all the Women’s March participants were Trump supporters who swung hard against him between election day 2016 and inauguration day 2017. Trump lost white female college grads 51-44 to Clinton in 2016. It’s not like they left him for the Democrats in 2018, because they weren’t with him to begin with. In 2018, Republicans lost white college women 59-39, but that was with Trump not on the ballot.
- This leads to the next point: You can’t just assume the 2018 electorate is the same as the 2020 electorate. Republicans won huge in the 2010 midterms and still lost handily in the 2012 election. Democrats’ victory in 2018 does not in any way guarantee a smashing victory for them this fall. Having the President on the ticket is a massive game-changer no matter how you slice it.
- 2016 redux? There were multiple times in 2016 when it felt like the final nail had been pounded into Trump’s coffin. There were even times in 2016 when it was hard to tell if Trump actually wanted to win the election at all. Maybe there is a method to Trump’s madness. He seems to just be sitting on his ass while the country burns, not bothering to do anything but tweet like he’s a bystander instead of President of the United States. Maybe he’s under more significant quarantine than we’re led to believe. Maybe he’s being sequestered in a basement just like Biden is. I don’t know. Whatever it is, it seems like he’s lost control of the country. And yet, we’ve been here before in 2016 when it seemed like he completely lost control of his campaign and had even given up. Yet he still ended up winning. So I won’t count this guy out.
Now for a (potentially) pro-Biden theory:
- Urban black voters: the anti-Trump energy in the cities will outweigh the “Return to Normalcy” energy outside of the cities. The Elite’s main goal in provoking the race riots is to juice up black voter enthusiasm for Biden. It’s why they chose Biden in the first place: because he’s popular with black voters. A big reason Hillary lost in 2016 was because she did not get the same black voter turnout in the big cities that Obama got. It’s probably why she lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin–because Democrats in those states rely on black voters in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, and they just didn’t show up for Hillary the way they did for Obama. So the goal for 2020 is to get black voters motivated to vote for Biden. Will the race riots do the trick? It’s tough to say now, but I think the real question is: will the gain in black voters be more than Biden’s loss in white voters? Because the Democrats have pushed a lot of voters–and not just white voters, but voters of all colors–into Trump’s arms. Most people–black, white, Hispanic, Asian, whatever–prefer stability to chaos, normalcy to abnormality.
- And the thing is, Biden was actually set up to do fairly well with white voters–at least better than Hillary did. Biden appeals to blue collar workers, especially in the upper midwest. That is precisely the area that flipped from Obama to Trump and put Trump in the White House: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa. When Biden was Obama’s VP, his main job was to campaign in the Rust Belt and appeal to blue collar whites. But now it might be a moot point because Biden is inexorably associated with the inner-city race riots.
Regardless of what the polls say, I just don’t think there’s been that much of a backlash against Trump. Trump has definitely irritated a lot of his base supporters by not doing much in the face of these riots, and not being more aggressive in re-opening the country. But it’s not like those people are going to vote for Biden. That just makes no sense.
But still: the polls! It’s hard to just completely ignore the polls. But what if the polls truly are bullshit. The elite is pulling out all the stops to try to defeat Trump. So why wouldn’t they rig the polls? They started race riots and carried out a Plannedemic in order to swing the 2020 election. What makes you think they’d balk at rigging the polls?
It’s easy to see why they’d rig the polls. Lots of Trump supporters on social media are despondent, basically resigned to the fact that Trump is going to get wiped out in the fall. They talk a big game about not believing the polls, but I don’t think many of them truly believe the polls are fake and can be disregarded entirely.
But if you view it from the perspective that the Elite is doing everything in their power to steal this election from Trump–months of quarantine, race riots, mail-in voting, social media censorship and purges–then it really wouldn’t be much of a stretch to believe they’re trying to turn the election into a self-fulfilling prophecy by showing poll after poll after poll of Trump getting slaughtered. Eventually even the most ardent Trump supporters start to believe it.
The point is, I just don’t see how Trump can be so far behind. Something feels “off” seeing him down 9+ points in a poll. It just doesn’t accurately reflect the mood I’ve observed in this country in talking to people over the past few months. Yes, that’s all anecdotal. But I’ve been to multiple different states across the country over the past few months and the general consensus is that people want to return to normalcy. People do not like what is happening in this country right now.
Also, I don’t think I’ve met a single Biden supporter. As in, a person who is genuinely excited about voting for Joe Biden. Instead, it feels like the people who have always despised Trump just despise him more obnoxiously than ever now.
Honestly, I feel like the events of the past month have turned more people into Trump supporters, albeit secret Trump supporters. They’re all afraid to admit it.
The idea that Trump is now losing big because he’s lost white support in the suburbs, I just don’t know if I buy that. All the BLM riots and protests of the past month–CHAZ included–that’s all associated with the Democratic Party.
By this point I think most people realize that a vote for Biden is a vote for this:
I really can’t see suburban whites voting for that. I can’t see non-college whites endorsing that with a vote for Biden.
Maybe people are lying to the pollsters. Maybe, like 2016, people are scared to admit they support Trump. I would say today’s social climate is even more hostile to Trump supporters than 2016’s was. 2016 honestly feels like child’s play compared to 2020. It could be that simple of an explanation.
Or the polls could be flat-out rigged. I don’t know.
But whatever it is, the polls just feel wrong. Despite what you see on the news and on social media, Americans are not happy about what is happening right now. They want this country to go back to normal. Guns are flying off the shelves. First-time gun-buyers are a common sight. There are millions of Americans who now for the first time in their lives feel unsafe in this country, and it has shaken them to their cores.
That is not an atmosphere conducive to a Biden win.
As I see it, the only place Biden is winning is in the polls and on social media. It could be that I have completely misread the country and don’t know how people are really feeling. But I think I’ve got it right. Social media and the news are not an accurate portrayal of America.
If Trump is going to lose, it’ll be because his supporters stayed home (not likely, because most realize the stakes of this election) and because the Democrats rigged the election with all their mail-in voting (which may have been the motivation behind the Plannedemic all along).
It feels like now more than ever, the polls exist not as a gauge of the political climate, but as yet another way to manipulate and direct the political climate.