I know I have been saying to ignore the polls for months now. And that’s mostly true: the polls are designed to manipulate, rather than measure, the general public’s attitudes toward the election. They should always be taken with a serious grain of salt.
But some polling has come out that has very interesting findings–findings that actually jibe with the overall mood of the nation. See, that’s the thing: polling in and of itself is not inherently a junk science. But it can (and has been) corrupted by political operatives who are flipping the whole idea of polling on its head: they’re attempting to shape, rather than understand, the public mood. Ridiculous polling results like those showing Biden up 15 points nationally are not remotely accurate; they’re propaganda designed to create momentum for the Biden campaign.
However, when honest pollsters come out with results that fit with the current mood of the nation (rather than what the media says the mood of the nation is), we have to take them into consideration. Because there are honest pollsters out there. This is the latest in Real Polling:
- An Emerson Poll released yesterday shows Trump getting 19% of the black vote to Biden’s 77%, which is a major shift from the final results in 2016, where Trump got a mere 8% black support to Hillary’s 89%. That same Emerson poll had Trump getting 37% of Hispanic voters to Biden’s 60%, which is a sizable shift from 2016 as well. In 2016, Hillary won Hispanic voters 66% to Trump’s 28%. Emerson is showing a swing of 15 points with Hispanics towards Trump. The poll had Trump up on Biden 56% to 41% with white voters, which is a decline from his 2016 support levels (57-37) but still much closer to what the actual 2020 election day results will be than what other polls were showing. I had a post about this the other week but the basic point was that any poll that shows Trump up less than 15 points with white voters is complete garbage.
- A poll from Democracy Institute released on Saturday 8/29 had an identical result with black voters: Biden 77%, Trump 19%. Among Hispanic voters, Biden was found to be leading 50% to 37%. This is an identical level of support for Trump compared to the Emerson poll, but not for Biden. This one found a lot more undecided Hispanic voters than the Emerson poll, meaning more room for improvement for Trump. If this poll is accurate it would mean Trump will likely be at 40% of above with Hispanics, which is extremely good when compared to prior Republicans. The DI poll also found that only 25% of Trump voters were “comfortable with relatives, friends and coworkers knowing how you vote.” Among Biden voters, it was 86%. That’s the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon on display, which we’ll get to in a minute.
- The DI poll also found 74% of the public agreed with the statement “all lives matter” vs. 26% who agreed more with “black lives matter.” Democrats (and all the big corporations) have massively misread public opinion on this.
- In addition to the Emerson and Democracy Institute polls, yet another poll, this one from Zogby Analytics, finds Trump surging with black voters. This poll has Trump at 20% to Biden’s 75%, which is quite similar to the other two. One poll might be easily dismissed, and even two. But not three. There’s something going on here. Trump is going to do incredibly well with black voters–probably better than any Republican in decades.
- This is how the black vote has shaken out in every Presidential election since 1976, just to provide the proper context of Trump’s polling with black voters for 2020:
| Election | Democrat | Republican | Third Party |
| 2016 | 89% | 8% | — |
| 2012 | 93% | 6% | — |
| 2008 | 95% | 4% | — |
| 2004 | 88% | 11% | — |
| 2000 | 90% | 9% | — |
| 1996 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| 1992 | 83% | 10% | 7% |
| 1988 | 89% | 11% | — |
| 1984 | 90% | 9% | — |
| 1980 | 83% | 14% | 3% |
| 1976 | 83% | 17% | — |
- If Trump gets 19% of the black vote, it will be the best a Republican has done with black voters since at least 1976, but probably even further back than that. No Republican has gotten more than 17% of black voters since 1976. The Democrats rely on regularly getting 90%+ of black voters. If they don’t, they’re toast. It’s as simple as that. Even if Trump gets 15% of black voters, it will put the election out of reach for Biden. Urban black voters are the only reason Democrats have a chance in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They lost those states in 2016 even while winning the black vote 89-8. But if Trump is at 15% or more with black voters nationally, it puts those states well out of reach for Democrats.
- JP Morgan quant Marko Kolanovic, who, as a wealth manager, actually has an incentive to assess the facts and be right about the election (as opposed to engage in political activism, like many of these so-called “pollsters”), recently said that “cancel culture” and social stigmas against Trump supporters may be artificially increasing Biden’s poll support by as much as 6%:
- Kolanovic also said that based on his studies of US elections from 1960-1972, he found that protests widely considered as “peaceful” boosted Democrats by 2-3%, but protests widely seen as violent resulted in a 2-8% swing towards Republicans. Now you see why the media is so determined to call the rioting “peaceful protests.”
- But the really striking part of Kolanovic’s analysis is his assessment that the polls are skewed towards Biden by up to 6%. This is a massive skew.
- Betting market odds now have Trump and Biden basically tied, a 23-point shift in just a month:
- So we now have multiple polls showing Trump at or just shy of 20% support with black voters. Now do the events of the past three months make sense? Democrats are working their asses off trying to keep black people terrified and in the Democratic fold, but it’s not working. The media is losing power and influence by the day. As I always say: if the media still had power and influence, Trump would never have won in 2016 in the first place. The media’s reputation has only gotten worse since then.
- Add on to this Trump’s undeniable surge with Hispanic voters and the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that understates Trump’s support by as much as 6 points, and the writing is on the wall: Trump is going to win.
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