The Polls Are Wrong

Ace of Spades had some great thoughts on the election:

I was observing some politicos I know. They’re having a hard time squaring the current polling with what they know anecdotally.

They all note this: Of all the people they know — including RINOs and squishes and NeverTrumpers who voted against Trump in 2016 — many of the NeverTrumpers are now reluctant Trump voters, and many of 2016’s reluctant Trump voters are now enthusiastic Trump voters.

On the other hand, they don’t know anyone who has moved from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden.

One friend tells me that the suburban well-to-do Wine Moms and Squish Sisters he knows are now fully on the MAGA train. Everyone they know who’s moved on The Trump Question (and Trump seems to be the only issue in 2020) has moved in favor of Trump.

They also note that the “Shy Trumper” effect — where Trump supporters won’t admit to pollsters they still support Trump — is still strong, based on their own experience.

One relates that he did not tell his own children that he voted for Trump, due to social pressure and the idea that he didn’t want to “normalize” Trump’s bad behavior to his children.

If you can’t tell your own kids you voted for Trump, you’re not going to tell a pollster.

And this person works in conservative politics, too!

If even people in the conservative movement can’t admit they’re Trump supporters — well good luck getting Wendy Wine Mom to admit that on the phone.

A friend of mine was a hardcore NeverTrumper in 2016 but now is a crawl-over-broken-glass Trump Voter. No, he doesn’t really like Trump, but unlike Jonah Goldberg and Steve Schmidt, he recognizes the profound threat the left poses to what is left of America.

He has kept in touch with his NeverTrump pals. Media types. The types who annoy you on Twitter.

And while he won’t Name Names, he tells me that many of the NeverTrumpers I hate are now “red pilled” Trump voters. They just won’t admit it publicly:

“There are people who you all know that I know are voting Trump that would legit shock you. These people have moved to [supporting Trump] in this scenario. And then there’s plenty of people like me who didn’t vote for Trump and are now enthusiastically doing it this time around. I too worry about being in a bubble, but this story is repeated constantly by everyone. I literally have not heard a single 2016 Trump supporter say they’re flipping this year.”

Another point made: If there were a lot of Trump defectors, the media would be profiling them and lionizing them and promoting them 24-7.

But I haven’t seen a single story about Trump 2016-Biden 2020 defectors.

The media hasn’t found any — despite the fact that by announcing that you’re now a full-on Democrat Liberal, you gain employment opportunities and social prestige.

So if the media can’t find any of these people… do they even exist?

One more point, from Vashta Nerada: “Biden is so far ahead, he is campaigning in states Clinton won in 2016.”

There is more social stigma on being a Trump supporter now than there was in 2016. Of course the Shy Trump Voter phenomenon is real.

Like Vashta Nerada pointed out, Biden is campaigning in states Hillary won in 2016. Those states would be Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire. The media downplays stuff like this, but it’s happening.

And these white suburban wine moms that supposedly are abandoning Trump and flocking to Biden–they never supported Trump in the first place.

This idea that Trump has lost support from women since becoming President is nonsense. All the pussyhats and “Nasty Women” were hardcore Hillary supporters from the start.

If anything, the suburbs have shifted even more to Trump due to the riots.

I don’t know a single person who voted for Trump in 2016 but isn’t voting for him now. I know plenty of people who didn’t support him in 2016 but support him now. Yes, it’s anecdotal evidence, but I’m sure I’m not the only one who has a story like this. I keep hearing this same thing from other people.

The polls are wrong. Biden is not up 16. He’s not on pace to win one of the biggest landslides in US history. I don’t know where the race truly stands, but the media is promoting this false narrative that the country is just so disgusted by Trump’s “unpresidentialness” that they just want him gone and they don’t care who replaces him.

It’s just not true. People in the media live in a bubble where everyone’s life revolves around burning, intense hatred of Donald Trump 24/7, so they think that’s how the whole country feels. They think everyone else wakes up mad about Trump and goes to sleep mad about Trump. It’s just not true. The media is completely out of touch.

They have no idea what’s coming on November 3rd.


  1. This resembles my experience as well. Maybe I too am in a bubble. But still…. wouldn’t there be at least a FEW counter examples?

    1. Hohenzollern says:

      You’d think so. But there aren’t. I live in Chicago and even here you’d be surprised how many trump supporters there are (although it’s still overwhelmingly lib)

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