Early voting is officially done in Florida. The only votes remaining will be those that come in tomorrow on Election Day, and those votes will skew heavily for Trump.
Biden finished early voting with a 112k vote lead in Florida, and that is not likely to be enough to hold off the Trump Wave coming tomorrow:
This is great news for the Trump campaign.
There’s more of an in-depth breakdown on the site, which shows how many outstanding “4/4 voters” each party has outstanding. A 4/4 voter is someone who has voted for the same party in the past four elections. So for example a 4/4 Republican voter is someone who voted Republican in 2016, 2012, 2008 and 2004. These are considered highly reliable voters to turn out for 2020:
Democrats only have about 79k 4/4 voters left, while Republicans have 253k 4/4 voters in Florida outstanding, which is a good sign for Republicans. It means they have a net advantage in 4/4 voters outstanding of about 174k, meaning they should be able to make up for the Democrats’ 112k early vote gap. And of course this is only 4/4 voters, there are many other types voters out there.
As for independent 4/4 voters remaining:
The site estimates that there are about 65k unaffiliated (independent) 4/4 voters that haven’t voted yet. The site also estimates that the split will be about 52/47 in favor of the Democrats, based purely on the D/R split of the counties these unaffiliated voters live in.
This translates into 33,800 votes that will probably go Biden, and 30,550 that will probably go Trump. This is only a net advantage of 3,250 votes for Biden, which is not going to be enough.
Again, this is all estimates and projections. The results on election day could be different. But all indications are that Trump will win election day by a wide margin, including in all the big swing states.
Nick Trainer, the man in charge of the Trump campaign’s battleground strategy, was extremely candid about where things stand in the swing states, and he seems highly confident going into election day. This article appeared in the Washington Examiner and if Trainer is right, it portends great things for Trump:
“In a lot of places across the country, Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy.
In a detailed review of the key states and upcoming voting, Trainer said that the campaign and the Republican National Committee’s get-out-the-vote effort is set up to push even “low propensity” Trump voters to the polls.
“This is what it was built for,” he said, predicting reelection.
In a call to reporters to suggest that the Biden campaign plans to drag out the election vote counting, Trainer turned to the current voting to declare that the Democrat’s lead in early voting is about to go poof.
He went over every major swing state and here was his outlook on each:
Ohio. “Starting in Ohio, Joe Biden wasted time today to go to Ohio. Weeks ago, the partisan makeup of the electorate in Ohio was Democrats plus-10%. Today, it’s Democrats 0.6%. Going into Election Day in 2016, that gap was Democrats plus-2.5%. President Trump has a projected Election Day margin of over 400,000 net votes in Ohio.”
North Carolina. “In North Carolina, where the president was this morning, Democrats jumped out to a partisan advantage of D plus-32. Today it is D 5.8. Going into Election Day 2016, the partisan advantage was Democrats plus-9.7%. Again, President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes.”
Pennsylvania. “Democrats have banked a ton of high propensity voters, voters that were going to vote anyway have cast their ballot by mail. We have millions of voters left in Pennsylvania for the president. President Trump’s Election Day margin needs to be big, and it will. We currently project he’ll win the Election Day vote in Pennsylvania by over 1 million votes.”
Arizona. “Don Jr. is out in Arizona right now. Weeks ago, the makeup of that electorate was D plus-11.9%. After significant early voting, it is now down to D plus-1.2%. The gap on Election Day in 2016, D plus-2.5%. President Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000 votes.”
Florida: “Democrats jumped out to an 18.8% partisan advantage during the [absentee-only] voting period. Today, it’s down to 1%. Going into Election Day 2016, the gap was 1.4%. President Trump has an Election Day margin of over 500,000 net ballots.”
Wisconsin. “In Wisconsin, the makeup of the electorate weeks ago, D plus-12.3%. Today, D plus-5.9%. Going into Election Day 2016, that gap was D plus-9.6%. We’ll win Election Day in Wisconsin by over 100,000 votes.”
Nevada: “Democrats jumped out to a 27.3% lead during [absentee ballot voting] only. Today, after significant early voting period, it’s down to D plus-5%. Election Day 2016, it was D plus-7.9%. President Trump has an Election Day margin in Nevada of 50,000 votes.”
Michigan: “They’ve got, again, a ton of high propensity voters in Michigan. And we have nearly 2 million votes for President Trump left. President Trump will need to win Election Day in Michigan by about 350,000 votes. And today, we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes in President Trump’s favor.”
He concluded, “It’s pretty simple out there. If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate, still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow as they’ve been telling us for well over two years now, President Trump is going to have four more years.”
So he seems confident. The voter enthusiasm is decisively in Trump’s favor–in other words, these voters are more likely than not to show up tomorrow.
Over the weekend, Trump held a rally in Butler, PA, which is about 30 miles north of Pittsburgh. The crowd there was incredible. They estimated that 40-50k people attended:
I think Trump is looking good going into tomorrow. I expect he’ll win, but the elephant in the room is voter fraud. How much of it will the Democrats get? It’s impossible to speculate, but it’s just worth pointing out that everything we’ve discussed above has been assuming an election carried out on the up-and-up.
Finally, I want to discuss the polls a bit. I see a lot of Democrats pointing to the polls as reason for confidence in a Biden win, and this is shaping up to be a bad situation if/when Trump wins.
The Democrats are convinced they’re going to win solely because of the polls.
Now they’re in the mindset that if Trump wins, it will be because he cheated to win via “voter suppression” or some other myth like that.
In other words, they believe the polls are right, not the votes.
Which is an absurd thing to believe, but millions of Democrats out there believe just that. This is shaping up to be a big problem in the coming days.
The media has brainwashed Democrat voters to an incredible extent. Many of them have more faith in the polls than they do the voting results. Obviously a lot of this can be explained by motivated reasoning/confirmation bias, i.e. the Democrats believing only the things that tell them what they want to hear.
But this is why the polls are rigged in Biden’s favor: so Democrat voters refuse to accept the results tomorrow night.