Much has been made about the seeming “irregularity” that Biden improved on Hillary’s 2016 margins in cities like Detroit and Milwaukee while either not improving or even doing worse than her in other Midwestern cities that you’d assume would trend in the same direction as the ones he did better than Hillary in.
- Biden actually netted 35k fewer votes over Trump in Philadelphia County than Hillary did in 2016. However, the counting is apparently not yet done there (go figure).
- Biden netted about 7k fewer votes in Cuyahoga County, Ohio (where Cleveland is located) than Hillary did in 2016.
- However, Biden netted 34k additional votes in Wayne County, Michigan (where Detroit is) over what Hillary got.
- And he netted an additional 20k votes in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin above Hillary.
If you’re still confused by what I’m saying here, what I mean is: Hillary won Cuyahoga county by 214k votes over Trump in 2016. But Biden beat Trump by 207k in Cuyahoga County, meaning Biden netted -7k votes below Hillary’s 2016 margin. Conversely, Hillary won Milwaukee county by 163k in 2016, but Biden won it by 183k in 2020, meaning Biden netted an additional 20k votes over Hillary’s 2016 margin of victory in the county.
People are talking about these uneven surges and drop-offs in big Midwestern cities as potential “irregularities,” a term that has become quite popular.
But I think it’s worth pointing out that Biden saw even greater surges in the suburbs surrounding these blue cities–and not just cities in the Midwest. Only discussing his gains in certain Midwestern cities does not paint the full picture.
- There was suburban backlash to Trump. For example, while Biden netted 32k more votes than Hillary in Wayne County, Michigan, he also nearly doubled her net margin in the next county over: suburban Oakland County–from +53k to +108k. Oakland County in the 2010 census was 77% white.
- In the four counties comprising suburban Philadelphia–Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware–Biden netted a combined +95k votes over what Hillary got in 2016. Hillary carried all four counties in 2016 and Biden did in 2020, but Biden expanded on Hillary’s advantage in those counties.
- Biden netted an additional 63k votes in Fulton County Georgia (Atlanta), but also netted an additional 111k votes in the three counties comprising suburban Atlanta–Cobb, DeKalb and Clayton counties–over what Hillary got in 2016.
- Biden is on track to do noticeably worse in Cook County, IL than Hillary did, but he was able to squeeze more than 43k additional votes out of suburban Chicago–Will, DuPage, Kendall and Kane counties–than Hillary did.
There’s really no other way to view Biden as other than a vote against Trump. That’s how he fashioned his campaign and how he sold himself to voters. So for Biden to do better in the suburbs than Hillary indicates that there was suburban backlash against Trump.
It’s clear that the media’s constant negative portrayal of Trump hurt him in the suburbs. People believed all that BS about “restoring civility” and “norms” and “decency” (as if Joe Biden, the man who tries to fight factory workers, is the epitome of “decency”). The “But his tweets!” crowd was larger than you might think.
Lots of people in the suburbs “tapped out.” They caved to the mass psychological abuse. They believed that a Biden win would make things go back to normal: no more constantly worrying about politics, no more pandemic, no more riots. I sympathize with that sentiment, but it’s wrong for two reasons: A. the power establishment will never allow things to go back to normal; they’re going to crack down on dissent to make sure an outsider never crashes the party again, and B. it is morally and intrinsically wrong to give in to extortion.
Look what a New York Times writer had to say about how Trump supporters should be treated under a President Biden:
There will be no “unity” or “healing” or “coming together.” They never wanted that in the first place. It has been obvious for four years now: the people who complain of Trump’s “divisiveness” are the ones who are encouraging the rioting and Russiagate hysteria, and who have spent every minute of Trump’s first term trying to force him out of office.
This article appeared in the Spectator’s American edition, and I believe it captures the sentiment behind many of the suburban Biden voters:
They would rather our government be controlled by corrupt globalists because it means no more mass psychological abuse of the nation by the media. Again, I can sympathize with this sentiment, but it’s wishful thinking.
My point is, there was a genuine suburban backlash to Trump. And that must not be discounted.
Now, what remains up for discussion is whether the extent of that suburban backlash to Trump was truly as big as what the election results reflected. You can also interpret Biden’s surge in the suburbs as evidence that the voter fraud was more widespread than just in the cities. And I think given the massive increase in easily-defrauded mail-in ballots, this is probably true to some extent. But don’t discount the fact that there was genuine backlash to Trump in the suburbs.
Let’s move on to one final data point that I think people are overlooking: Biden’s margin in Dane County, Wisconsin, where Madison is located. Everyone is focused on Biden’s 20k vote net gain over Hillary in Milwaukee because it’s almost the exact number of votes he’s up in Wisconsin overall.
But most people don’t even realize that Biden was boosted way more by Dane County than Milwaukee. He netted an additional 35k votes over what Hillary got in Dane County. Dane County was almost more important to Biden in Wisconsin than Milwaukee County.
Biden won Milwaukee County over Trump by about 183k votes (compared to Hillary’s 163k vote margin).
Biden won Dane County over Trump by about 181k votes (compared to Hillary’s 146k vote margin).
Take away those 20k votes in Milwaukee and Trump and Biden are tied in the state.
Take away those extra 35k votes in Madison and Trump is ahead by 15k in Wisconsin.
And yet nobody’s talking about Biden’s massive surge in Dane County. I know people are more focused on Milwaukee because it’s a bigger city and a place where voter fraud is probably more likely to take place.
But the Democrats are also firmly in control of Dane County, too. Don’t assume the shenanigans were only taking place in the more well-known big cities.