With still a half hour left til close, the Nasdaq is up 4.24%, the S&P is up 1.95% and the Dow, yesterday’s darling, was up 0.62%. Tech absolutely exploded higher today, led by Tesla which is currently up nearly 20% on the day.
A lot of people are proudly proclaiming that the tech selloff is over, and it might well be.
But in the grand scheme of things, tech valuations are still insanely high. Here’s a few select names and their P/E ratios, via MarketBeat:
- Microstrategy (MSTR): 6,092x earnings
- Peloton (PTON): 1,642x earnings
- Tesla (TSLA): 1,348x earnings
- Shopify (SHOP): 722x earnings
- Zoom (ZM): 438x earnings
- Square (SQ): 354x earnings
- Overstock.com (OSTK): 322x earnings
- DropBox (DBX): 130x earnings
- AMD (AMD): 106x earnings
- Paypal (PYPL): 92x earnings
- Netflix (NFLX): 82x earnings
- Nvidia (NVDA): 72x earnings
And that’s just for the lucky companies that actually have earnings. Lemonade (LMND) is trading at 73x sales currently. They’re just a renters insurance company, but because they’re branded as a trendy tech company, they fetch a sky-high valuation.
Now, I will say that despite the insane valuations in tech, the whales like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and Google are cash machines. Those companies have massive market caps, but they’re also massively profitable.
This is XLK, the tech sector ETF:
I wrote this morning that after the massive run up in Financials, Energy and Value, maybe beaten-down tech is starting to look like a better bargain. Well, maybe not.
Maybe they’re all overbought.
It feels like bar close, and the hottest girls at the bar have already left, so now you’re scrambling for the less-attractive girls just so you don’t have to go home alone. But it’s still 3am and the party is over.
“Sector Rotation” my ass: everything is overbought. Everything.
Some sectors are less overbought than others, but that doesn’t make them “cheap” in absolute terms. Only relative terms.
This “sector rotation,” in my eyes, is like in Titanic when people rushed to the stern just because it was the only part of the ship still above the water.
The whole thing is still sinking.