Polling firm Harris Research’s latest data:
They’ve got polling for Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Kamala Harris, and for some reason Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris (but not Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden).
The poll found Trump is ahead of Biden 46-40, ahead of Kamala Harris 49-39, and that DeSantis is ahead of Harris 40-39 (so basically tied).
What I don’t understand is why Trump does better against Harris than he does against Biden. It’s obviously the undecided voters that make up the 3 point gap; they’re definitely sure they’d rather have Trump over Kamala, but not sure if they’d rather have Trump over Biden.
Now the results of this poll will obviously be touted by Republicans that Trump is a slam dunk for 2024 and that he must be the nominee. After all, he’s polling ahead of DeSantis!
I’m not so sure about that.
For one thing, at least in the poll between DeSantis and Kamala, there are over 20% of respondents undecided, and DeSantis is still not yet a well-known national figure, meaning DeSantis has a lot more upside.
Trump, meanwhile, who is obviously well-known nationally, cannot crack 50% in the polls against the most unpopular Democratic administration in over 40 years.
I’m going to keep repeating myself on this: while I know most people on our side love Trump and would go to the ends of the earth for the guy, he is simply far too polarizing and does not have the capability of building up a broad, national coalition capable of winning a landslide.
For every person that would go to the ends of the earth to support Trump, there is another person out there who would go to the ends of the earth to oppose him.
Too many people hate Trump and refuse to change their minds on him, no matter how bad and unpopular Brandon is.
As bad as Biden has been the past year, you would think this would make large numbers of Americans realize they made a mistake in 2020 and vow to return Trump to office in 2024, but this is not the case.
Final polling averages from the 2020 election showed Trump at 44% support nationwide:
Harris’ poll in particular had Trump at… 46% support.
He finished with 46.9% of the popular vote in the actual election.
So Harris’ poll has only found that Brandon has lost a ton of support, not that Trump has gained a lot of support.
Now obviously we know the result of the 2020 election is questionable, to put it gently. But the polling was pretty close to what the Official Results™ say. The final RCP polling average for the 2020 election was 51-44 Brandon. The actual result was 51-47 Brandon.
In the 2016 election, which no one on our side disputes the results of, Trump received 46.1% of the popular vote to Hillary’s 48.2%.
Could it simply be the case that only 46-47% of the country supports Trump, and that that is about his ceiling in terms of the popular vote?
Look, I understand the popular vote doesn’t technically matter in elections because you win through the electoral college.
But isn’t the ultimate goal here to build a strong, lasting winning coalition and decimate the Democratic Party’s national power?
You cannot do that with a guy who is capped out around 46-47% of the vote nationwide.
I know you love Trump, but a lot of other people out there simply do not, and they have made up their minds on the guy. As bad as Brandon has been, it still has not changed people’s minds on Trump.
Right now, all people know is that Brandon sucks. But that does not appear to be translating into support for Trump.
I get that there was serious funny business that went down in big Democrat-controlled cities in the swing states–Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit, Phoenix in particular. I would say Philly as well but digging into the data, Biden actually underperformed Hillary in Philadelphia.
You want to know where Biden outperformed Hillary? In the suburbs. And nobody talks about vote fraud occurring there.
Chester County, PA, a suburb of Philly: Biden did 8 points better than Hillary did there:
Bucks County, PA, another suburb of Philly and one of the biggest swing counties in the nation. Biden did 4.4 points better than Hillary.
Look, I am not saying the 2020 election was fair and legitimate. It wasn’t. It was one of the most questionable elections in US history.
But the Democrats cheat in literally every election. You cannot blame this all on Democrat shenanigans.
People have got to come to the realization that as much as they personally love Trump, he is not the guy who is going reshape the electoral landscape of the country.
We are at a time right now in this country where the Democratic Party’s stranglehold on national elections is on the verge of breaking. Hispanic voters are ready to leave the Democratic Party in droves–and a decent number of black voters, too.
But Republicans need to nominate someone who can capitalize on that. Too many people have already made their minds up on Trump for him to be that guy. He is too much of a known quantity. For every person that loves him, there is another person despises him. In fact there are probably slightly more people out there who viscerally despise him.
Is DeSantis the guy? Remains to be seen. A lot will depend on how he fares in his reelection fight later this year. Polls have him comfortably ahead of the competition, though.
But I would rather take my chances on him than Trump. For one thing, DeSantis is way younger and we need to get the old boomers the hell out of the way. No more 80 year old boomers running the country.
Again, as I always say, if Trump ends up as the Republican nominee in 2024, I’ll wholeheartedly support him. And honestly he’d probably still be able to win just because of how deeply hated Brandon is–at least as it stands right now.
I just think DeSantis would be better.