The Nightmare Scenario in Ukraine

Dr. Fly of ponders what will happen with Russia and Ukraine if indeed war breaks out:

I don’t think many of you understand the immense mobilization taking place in Russia — with assets being moved from the most eastern part of the Federation into Eastern Europe, on the border with Ukraine. We have the President of Belarus making batshit statements, pounding the drums of war.

And now we have reports Chechen forces loyal to Russia are moving towards the Ukraine border, as well as elements of Russia’s Baltic fleet being moved to the Black Sea via land. All of this is occurring in Russia’s front yard and post Afghanistan disaster, there is next to zero iron will amongst the American people to wage a war with Russia over Europe.

So, who will check them?

The entire German army totals 65,000 men, unionized — 250 tanks.
The entire UK army is 82,000 men.

Europe is a shell to be cracked and if Russia wanted to — they could take the entire continent.

Obviously, we live in much more genteel times than 80 years ago, as western cities embrace all of the wonderful trappings of post modernism. But in the east, places like Moscow or in Poland or in Hungary — the men are still militant with very few transgendered Admirals amongst their ranks. I view the specter of war in Ukraine as a 100% probability and ponder if this could lead to an American response, which in turn might lead to Russia invading NATO Baltic countries in an effort to destroy the organization? Who can stop them? Brussels?

Now if this happened and China felt the mood was right to take Taiwan, we could find ourselves in a world very different from the masked one we find ourselves in presently. Again, this is a long shot scenario — but a military defeat in Europe or Taiwan coupled with the dissolution of NATO would lead to, in my opinion, a run on the dollar. In such a scenario you would see an immense shift out of dollars and into Bitcoin.

As he says, this is a longshot scenario, but if it were to play out, we could be looking at a situation where the US dollar is no longer the world reserve currency, which would lead to a serious economic crisis.

The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. If that were to suddenly change, it would be chaotic.

Now, it is easy to envision a scenario where China and Russia move simultaneously to take what they want–Russia into Ukraine, China into Taiwan–and dare the US to do anything about it.

I don’t even think that’s all that difficult to imagine, honestly.

It’s going to happen sooner or later. The US is an aging and dying empire with no will for war, while China and Russia are eager to reassert themselves after taking a back seat to the US for a many years.

If Russia and China were to do this, it would be them essentially taking the torch from us. It would mark the official moment America ceased to be the global hegemon.

But what would really humiliate America would be if Putin decides to invade the Baltic states, like Fly discusses above. That would be the end of NATO. I do not think we would go to war with Russia over the Baltic states. We would have no choice but to disband NATO and admit defeat.

That would be what sends the US dollar plummeting. That is the scenario that the US government should be trying to avoid at all costs.

Yet our government’s hardline public stance and arrogant refusal to concede even a single inch in a country that has no strategic or geopolitical value to us is only going to further antagonize Putin and make it more likely that he tries to really stick it to us–whether now or down the road someday.

Because look, while I hate the fact that the US is an evil, imperialistic empire that meddles in everyone else’s business, causes unspeakable harm to other countries, and is run by the most arrogant psychopaths on the planet who are in desperate need of being put in their place–and while I do believe that NATO is pointless and ought to be disbanded, it should be disbanded on our own terms. I.e., voluntarily.

If we do it voluntarily, we save face and we could even spin it as a gesture of goodwill to the Russians and maybe try to draw them away from China and closer to our side.

Look, we’re never going to come to the aid of half these countries that have joined NATO if they’re ever invaded. We all know it, they know it, and Putin knows it. He knows we are not going to war with Russia over the Baltic states. No disrespect to the Baltic States, but when we allowed them to join NATO, we were making promises we’d never be able to live up to. “Yeah, Latvia, we’ll go to war with the Russians if they invade you.”

That’s what we told them–and many other countries, too.

It’s all bullshit. It has always been bullshit. NATO is built on a big bluff–built on the assumption that the Russians would never even dream of testing the US’ commitment to its NATO allies.

But if the Russians ever were to call that bluff, they would find that the US is not prepared to honor its commitments to its NATO allies. When push comes to shove, we simply will not go to war with Russia over the Baltic states. And I think more and more people realize that nowadays.

Which is why I say we need to save face here and voluntarily disband NATO on our own terms–before the Russians realize it’s a paper tiger.

Obviously, this will never happen. The US will never agree to voluntarily dismantle NATO, so in all likelihood, NATO will end in forcible humiliation after Russia finally decides to call the Great Bluff.

Sooner or later the Russians are going to invade the Baltic states, knowing that while the US is contractually obliged to defend them in the event of an invasion, America will do no such thing. And at that point, once the US breaks its commitment to its NATO allies, NATO is toast, and it will mark the end of America’s tenure as global hegemon. For the first time since the 1980s, America will no longer be the world’s preeminent superpower.

It’s going to happen one way or another–but it’s in our best interest to manage the process and make it as smooth and non-violent as possible. And non-humiliating, as well.

If Russia invades Ukraine, we can live with that. We should not take such an intolerant hard line toward Russia on this matter. Because doing so makes it more likely they decide to go for the jugular and topple the whole NATO alliance.

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