Last night, at about 9:30pm eastern time, the long-awaited Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced.
The Russian military began with precision airstrikes on Ukrainian air defense sites, essentially grabbing total and complete air dominance. This is an absolute necessity in modern warfare.
After opening with strategic airstrikes to both disable key Ukrainian defenses and demoralize the opposition, the Russian ground invasion began and the tanks and APCs rolled in.
Russian troops are now invading Ukraine from all sides in an attempt to encircle the country and cut it off from any and all foreign support.
It appears that this will be a quick war, and word is that there are Russian troops within 10 miles of Kiev. It’s unconfirmed as the reports are coming from Russian state media, but apparently Ukrainian troops are laying down their arms en masse and offering very little–if any–resistance.
This is good news. Obviously strong Ukrainian resistance would mean more death and devastation, and any decent human being wants this war to be decided ASAP.
I’m just going to run over some of the most important developments, at least as I see it:
- The post-Cold War world order is finished. Done. We now live in a multipolar world, and the US has managed the transition to it about as poorly as possible.
- Covid is done. Doesn’t Covid feel like ancient history now?
- China has clearly taken Russia’s side here. The Chinese have gone out of their way to avoid condemning Russia’s actions. In fact the Chinese have actually blamed this on American hostility and provocation. And they have said they will not sanction Russia at all.
- Will this finally wake the US ruling class and cause them to stop kowtowing to China? That’s doubtful, given that just yesterday, before war broke out, the Biden DoJ shut down an anti-Chinese spying initiative because they deemed it racist. Our government is completely paralyzed by Wokeness and unseriousness.
- Take a look at this picture and tell me if you think Russia fear us. Not a chance. The one man in that picture has a lower testosterone level than any of those four women (although I’m unsure how many of them are trans). America has prioritized Wokeness over actual military strength and effectiveness.
- The Baltics could be next. I doubt it, though, because they’re NATO states, and I doubt Russia would want to risk an all-out war with the US right now in this moment. But I’m reasonably sure that if Putin did in fact choose to invade the Baltics, he could easily take them and the US would not declare war on Russia. And that would be the end of NATO.
- I think what Putin will do after securing Ukraine is begin a long effort to put the squeeze on the Baltics and coerce them to leave NATO “voluntarily.”
- A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is, to me, far more likely than Russia moving on the Baltics.
- It’s probable that Russia and China have planned this all along, and that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not far behind. Putin was in Beijing with Xi not even a month ago. There is zero chance Ukraine and Taiwan were not discussed. It’s a certainty that China is gauging the US reaction to Russia’s invasion, and if China feels that the US has not imposed severe punishments on Russia, China will likely conclude that it has the green light to move on Taiwan.
- That would simply overwhelm the US and make it impossible for our government to respond at all here. It would be a clear demonstration by China and Russia that America is no longer running the show, and that America is powerless to stop them.
- If China invades Taiwan, any American sanctions on China would probably have the effect of devastating the US economy. The US economy is heavily reliant on China.
- What happens to Ukraine long-term? I have no idea. Clearly their government is no longer going to be in power, but does this mean that Ukraine will be fully and completely absorbed by Russia? In my view that’s likely. Russia already had a situation where they had a pro-Russian puppet regime in power in Ukraine, but that ultimately didn’t work out as the CIA overthrew it in 2014 and replaced it with a pro-US regime. I doubt Russia wants to simply go back to the pre-2014 status quo. I think what we’re seeing now will ultimately result in the end of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country.
- The US Government–Biden specifically–looks small and irrelevant right now. For 30 straight years, the US government called the shots almost everywhere in the world. It was what they they say, goes. The US government was able to impose its will simply by making demands. No longer. They demanded Russia leave Ukraine alone, and Russia didn’t listen. Putin has shattered the myth of US global hegemony.
- The world now knows that the US is all talk, no action. After 20 years of war and failure in the Middle East, the American public has no more appetite for war. Beyond that, there is a general sense in America of tiredness and disillusionment toward being the Global Hegemon and World Police. We can no longer be whipped up into a frenzy to invade or (“defend”) some far-off country that has no real impact on our everyday lives.
- All of this is the American ruling class’ fault: they are the ones who destroyed both America’s internal morale and external credibility through their 20 years of fruitless war in the Middle East. And they are the ones who continually prodded and provoked Russia by trying to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian US puppet state.
- The US government
- What does this mean for Europe? Well, at the very least, it means that the American military umbrella Europe has been living safe and sound under for the past 30 years is now in question. I know Ukraine is not a NATO country, but Ukraine had a US-aligned puppet regime in power. America made plenty of statements about how Ukraine was a vital ally, how aggression against Ukraine would not be tolerated, and it was all in an effort to deter Russia from attacking. It didn’t work.
- European countries are going to have to reconsider their relationships and foreign policies. Russia is their neighbor; America is across an ocean. Europe has for the past 30 years or so been doing America’s bidding and antagonizing Russia at the US’ behest. They did this because they felt America was far superior to Russia in terms of power and because they felt it was more advantageous to cozy up to America. Now? I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore. Why would Europe continue antagonizing Russia when they can no longer be certain of America’s global supremacy? Ukraine submitted to America and antagonized Russia on America’s behalf, and look what it got them.
- If I were a European leader, I would probably be trying to improve my relationship with a resurgent and expansionist Russia. I would balk at the idea of constantly antagonizing Russia at America’s behest. America is still stuck in this deeply Russophobic Cold War mentality, and that outdated posture is ultimately the reason Ukraine got invaded. America kept pushing and pushing and pushing, trying to expand NATO as far as possible and expand its sphere of influence all the way up to Russia’s own doorstep–in fact, in Russia’s view, even into Russian “territory” given that Russia views Ukraine as part of Russia.
- If I’m a European country, why would I continue antagonizing and provoking Russia at the behest of America, who is an ocean away and will never have to deal with the consequences of Russian retaliation? America is simply using Europe to wage its never-ending Cold War on Russia. Europe is caught in the middle of the America-Russia tensions. Why would Europe want to continue that? Europe is increasingly reliant on Russia for energy exports. You’re already seeing Europe try to pump the brakes on any Russian sanctions. This is because sanctions on Russia would actually harm Europe quite a bit–you’re seeing right now European stocks down 4-5%.
- If China goes in and invades Taiwan–which I would say probably has a greater than 50% chance of happening–then that must lead to some very serious doubts about America’s ability and/or willingness to protect the nations it calls its “allies.”
- The point I’m making here is this: why would Europe want to maintain an adversarial relationship with Russia–which Europe does largely at the behest of America and its idiotic endless Cold War foreign policy stance–in light of all this? For the past 80 years or so, Europe has had the choice of hitching its wagon to either America or Russia. Western Europe chose America, and during the Cold War, Eastern Europe chose Russia. After the Cold War, Eastern Europe began moving closer to America, because it perceived friendship with America to be the best choice–and, implicitly, Eastern Europe also perceived the Americans as a far scarier enemy to have than the Russians.
- I would not be surprised if that status quo begins to shift. For one thing, nobody likes a loser and most people are bandwagoners who just want to be on the side that is perceived to be winning. Russia looks strong and resurgent right now. They are the emergent power in Europe. Why would European countries want to make an enemy of the strongest country in their region? They would be fools to continue antagonizing Russia–especially now that it’s clear America has neither the willingness or ability to protect them from Russia. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of America’s status as the dominant power in Europe.
Reminder that the media tried to hype of Joe Biden as a master strategist who would go toe-to-toe with Putin:
So much for that.
I also want to bring attention to the fact that 6 years ago, John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This video is now making rounds on social media:
And it’s all because of American aggression and our government overplaying its hand.
I am unsure if this video is legit, but apparently it shows Russian troops celebrating with Ukrainian locals in the wake of the invasion:
Again, I am unsure whether this is really from Ukraine today, but if it is, it would help explain why we have not seen much serious Ukrainian resistance here.
What does that tell us?
It should tell us that there really isn’t a whole lot of anti-Russian sentiment inside of Ukraine. I’m not going to go as far as saying Ukraine is welcoming the Russians as liberators (although certainly a percentage of the population is), but they are clearly not motivated to Defend Their Country Against the Russian Invaders.
While Russian troops were massing at the border over the past few months, what was Ukraine’s military doing? It was not massing on the other side of the border, at least as far as I know.
Ukraine does not seems to have its heart in this fight.
Certainly the US media will go to great lengths to portray Putin as an unwelcome conqueror, and certainly in some pockets of Ukraine that is true. But I believe a great number of Ukrainians support Russia here.
Putin would not have launched this invasion if he believed his troops would be widely viewed as invading conquerors.
Again, the US media will go to great lengths to elevated the voices of people within Ukraine who hate the Russians. But do not let that fool you into believing everyone in Ukraine hates the Russians.