It’s All Spin and Lies from the US Government

Yesterday, our Fearless Leader informed us that he was heading to Europe to “rally the international community” and “ensure Putin pays a severe economic cost for his war of choice.”

Wow, awesome, look at what a big tough guy Brandon is with his sunglasses. Putin must be quivering in his boots!

Notice anything wrong with that picture, though?

Like the fact that it was clearly not taken yesterday, and probably was taken last summer?

Look at the leaves on the trees. That is not a current photo.

Why couldn’t they just use a current photo? You have to wonder now.

Why does everything have to be a lie with these people?

Literally everything about that tweet is a lie.

The picture was a lie.

Biden is not going to rally jack shit. He’s never rallied anyone in his life.

Remember his rallies in 2020?

He’s more likely to fall asleep at the NATO meeting than he is to “rally the international community.”

And the “international community” as our government describes it is itself a lie.

They act like the whole world is on our side and against Russia.

That’s not true, either. China is on Russia’s side. India is on Russia’s side. The Saudis are, if not on Russia’s side, definitely not on our side. MBS wouldn’t even take Biden’s calls earlier this month when Biden was begging him to increase oil output to lower oil prices.

Now we learn today that the Iranians are working with the Russians on an alternative to SWIFT.

This map should help provide a visual of just how much our government is lying when they say the international community is aligned against Russia. In yellow are the nations that have imposed sanctions on Russia over Ukraine:

Yeah, the international community is with us–as long as you exclude most of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, South America and Central America. Other than that, the whole world is against Russia!

And as for Putin’s “war of choice,” that’s a lie, too.

Russia has begged us for years to not offer NATO membership to Ukraine. The idea of Ukraine joining NATO has been a red line for Russia, and they have consistently communicated that they would not tolerate Ukraine becoming further aligned with the West.

All we had to do was simply respect the fact that Russia has its own interests and feels threatened by our constant enlargement of NATO. All we had to do was simply pledge that we would leave Ukraine alone and never admit Ukraine into NATO.

But we won’t do that. Because to do that would be to concede an inch to another nation in the world, and to acknowledge that other nations actually have their own interests.

Obviously that’s unacceptable.

Everything you’re hearing from the US government right now is a lie. They’re trying to convince both the American people, the world and themselves that the US still rules the world with an iron fist, and that the Empire is not crumbling.

The Federal Reserve is also lying to us.

Right now, the yield curve on treasury bonds is at the point of inversion, where 2yr government bonds now carry higher yields than 10yr bonds–this is a harbinger of recession.

But the Fed is telling us to ignore the 2s10s yield curve and focus on a different metric, which shows that the economy is nowhere near a recession. Zerohedge:

It’s not just Wall Street’s increasingly less shrill army of legacy permabulls that has dismissed the collapsing 2s10s yield curve in favor of other, less relevant alternatives when it comes to timing the next recession: during Monday’s speech by Jerome Powell, the Fed chair did so too, because as DB’s Jim Reid explains, the Fed has “long preferred measures like the spread between the 18m forward 3m yield and the 3m yield which as our CoTD shows is now the steepest since on record with data going back to 1996.”

This has profound implications, the biggest one being that the Fed won’t see a 2s10s inversion as a reason to slow down rate hikes and that on their measure they have a record level of steepness in their curve to play with before the curve gets to a flat enough level to worry them.

In other words, the Fed won’t realize that the US is in a full-blown until as much as 9-12 months after the fact. For his part, Jim Reid writes that “I can’t help but smile when I think that only a year ago the FOMC’s median dot indicated there’d be no rate hikes until at least 2024, and now Fed Funds futures are pricing in nearly 200bps more in 2022… in addition to the 25bps we saw last week.

The Fed is deliberately ignoring the real yield curve.

That said, since the Fed is always wrong about pretty much everything and since Wall Street’s permabulls are among the most clueless animals in the world, we certainly agree with Reid that the 2s10s is a far better lead indicator since we can go back with a successful track record over far more cycles than the Fed’s preferred measure but in any case, it’s fair to say the record difference between the measures is now stark and worth debating.

There will be no debate. We don’t debate anymore in America. Debate is dangerous, because it implies that there is more than one valid worldview, and in a crumbling empire desperate to cling to power, dissent is increasingly intolerable.

Meanwhile, just three additional data points – as we showed last week when we laid out the details of every Fed hiking cycle over the last 70 years alongside the time to recession, none of the US recessions in the modern era have occurred until the 2s10s has inverted.

And while on average it takes 12-18 months from inversion to recession during a hiking cycle, the Fed has never before started a rate hiking cycle when inflation was already 7.9%. Expect a much faster recession onset this time.

Point #2: the 2Y fwd 2s10s curve just inverted…

… putting to rest any discussion, however contrived and artificial, that the US is about to enter a recession… which, incidentally, is just what the Fed wants.

Third and final – and undisputably most most concerning point – every Fed hiking cycle in the fiat high debt era, has led to some kind of financial crisis somewhere across the world.

The Fed can never admit it, but it’s trying to cause a recession. Recessions are the only way to slow down inflation and eventually get it under control.

If the Fed admitted that it deliberately causes recessions, there would be riots in the streets–and not the “good” kind of elite-sanctioned righteous riots like we saw in 2020, either.

So the Fed has to pump out jargon like “soft landing” and all the other incomprehensible and nonsensical Fed terms to make it seem like what they’re doing is a lot more delicate and complex than it actually is. What the Fed really does is promote economic expansions until it sees inflation, and then it pulls the plug on the expansion.

To recap: we have a President who is trying to convince us and the world that he’s in charge and still the top dog in world affairs even as the Global American Empire (GAE) crumbles.

And we have a Federal Reserve that is lying to us about the fact that it is deliberately sending us into recession, because the alternative to recession is hyperinflation.

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