Dr. Fly provides his take on the latest in the Ukraine war:
We are seeing a profound escalation in the war today, with Russian assets targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, something, if you recall, is part and parcel of the first days of any U.S. prosecuted war. When we do it, it was shock and awe. When Russia does it, it’s war crimes. Everyone sees through the double standard and only the truly idiotic people believe the bullshit.
Here is the unvarnished truth.
The people don’t deserve this shit. The people of Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and now Ukraine did not deserve this shit. In the case of US wars against “enemies”, there wasn’t much those nations could’ve done to stop our bombing, save become a vassal of America. In the case of Zelensky, all he had to do was expel NATO (an absurd idea in the first place) and strike a conciliatory tone with Russia — but he chose to antagonize and make Russia his enemy and here we are — with the people suffering the consequences of his actions.
As for markets — we are running higher now and I have a blend of long and shorts, down 20bps for the session. I am bearish but understand markets get stretched and bounce hard after the sellers exhaust themselves. Even during the very worst of markets, rallies happen so bear that in mind. I will likely maintain a long/short hedge in an effort to prevent drawdowns of any significant degree.
Speculation is Russia is massing forces in Belarus and might invade again from the north, so be prepared for further escalation.
And another great takeaway from the Kiev bombings:
I doubt Zelensky has been in Kiev within the past 6 months. At the very least, he’s holed up somewhere in Western Ukraine (Lvov possibly). Probably, he is safe and sound in some NATO country.
This might be a little too far-fetched and outlandish, but I have a theory here. Bear with me.
Okay, so Russia showed today that it absolutely has the ability to strike Kiev. It hit Zelensky’s office, showing clearly that they could have taken him out whenever they wanted (this is why I’m certain Zelensky has been out of Kiev for many months now).
What were they waiting on? Why did they wait so long to do this? Why did they basically spend the past 7 months not trying to win this war?
I have a guess: they are trying to maximize their returns here.
I can’t find official figures that are up to date, but I saw something on Twitter recently that the US has sent a total of like $86 billion to Ukraine since the war began. Way more than a billion a week. On May 20, the New York Times provided a breakdown of the $54 billion we’d already sent to Ukraine, and since it’s been an additional 5 months since then, it would not shock me at all if the number was at least $86 billion, maybe even more.
Now, I could be wrong, and perhaps the money is already long since spent or looted or otherwise doled out, and the weapons sent over already deployed.
But what if Russia was only planning on getting truly serious in this war after America had already poured in nearly $100 billion? Because then Russia would theoretically be able to seize control of a decent percentage of that money. I don’t know how exactly that would work because I’m sure the money we’ve given to Ukraine is not in the form of pallets of cash (although it wouldn’t be shocking, as we’ve done that before with Iran).
But I’m sure the Russians have a way to take control of a large chunk of that money once they really get the Zelensky regime on the run.
This achieves two things: it bleeds the US of money, and it fills the Russian government’s coffers. They can easily launder that money through allies of theirs like China.
It’s not as if this is a far-fetched strategy. Getting the US embroiled in long, expensive and painful conflicts is a time-honored Russian approach. They did it in Vietnam, and then they watched as the US spent decades in both Iraq and Afghanistan, spending billions of dollars, perhaps trillions in the process.
It’s just a thought I had.
I care quite a bit about the Russo-Ukrainian War.
I am rooting for Russia to win because a victory for Russia is a defeat for the US Empire.
Not America, the Empire. Our government is not us. Our government is our enemy.
If you were living in Nazi Germany, and you hated the Nazis, were you a bad person for that? Rooting for “your country” to lose? I’m sure you would rebut that accusation and say the Nazi government doesn’t represent you, is evil and must be defeated.
That’s how I feel about the US government. It is pure, unconstrained evil.
“But the Nazi comparison is hyperbolic!”
Is it? The US government created Covid. How many people did that kill?
They forcibly inject millions with an experimental vaccine. How many people has that killed, and how many people will it kill? They won’t tell us. All they do is shout VACCINES ARE SAFE AND EFFECTIVE at us in unison.
They refuse to enforce the law from coast to coast. American cities are becoming chaotic hellholes with no policing at all.
We no longer have a southern border. We are contiguous with Mexico now, and Mexico is a failed state run by drug cartels experiencing a mass refugee crisis from countries south of its own border. We have millions of people pouring over our border every year and our government does nothing. What you permit, you encourage.
And so they encourage rioting, looting and arson when it suits their political ends.
We could get crime and illegal immigration in this country under control in a second if we were serious. It’s not as if we’re incapable or don’t have the resources. We send over a billion dollars a week to Ukraine, but we’re told we simply do not have enough money to build a wall along our southern border. Our government chooses to encourage crime and lawlessness.
They encourage genital mutilation in young children.
And I haven’t even mentioned how many people around the world they’ve killed with their bombs, drone strikes, endless wars, and the CIA operating covertly. How many governments they’ve overthrown, how many countries they’ve destroyed, how many lives they’ve ruined.
The empire of lies must be defeated.
The US government is the worst entity on the planet. Compared to the US government, Russia and China are the good guys.
I just so happen to be an American, so saying all this has the whiff of treason. But it’s not treasonous to oppose evil incarnate.
It wasn’t morally wrong to oppose the Nazis within Germany. It wasn’t morally wrong to oppose the Soviets within the USSR.
It was the only legitimate stance an upstanding individual could take.
Russia must win in Ukraine and deliver a defeat to the empire of lies. Hopefully this will lead to Europe being liberated from vassalage to America. I don’t mean Russia conquers all of Europe, just that Europe breaks with the US over relations with Russia and NATO is dissolved. I just want the Europeans to realize it’s more important to them to have friendly ties with Russia than to be America’s bitch.
America’s world hegemony must be broken. The US government is far too powerful, far too corrupt, and far too evil. It must not be allowed to have free reign over the whole world.