Where This Election Is Headed

A lot of stuff has been said today by all kinds of people, but I think this is ultimately where we’re headed:

It’s going to be another Bush V. Gore situation.

I hope we can win before it comes to that, but I just have a feeling it’s going to the Supreme Court. Trump has already said he’s going that route.

Trump is not going to give up this easily. He appointed 3 of the current 9 Supreme Court Justices, and you better believe he views them as investments which will pay off for him eventually.

If Barrett even thinks about recusing herself from this decision, he’s going to pull her aside and say, “A. Remember who put you where you are, you’d be nothing without me, and B. If Biden wins, he’ll pack the court, and your shiny new Supreme Court seat becomes totally irrelevant.”

We have Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and now Amy Coney-Barrett on the court. I hope and pray they see through the B.S. and put an end to the shenanigans.

Now, that said, we still have a path to victory here: hold on to Georgia, North Carolina and PA while flipping Arizona. That gives us 62 electoral votes on top of Trump’s current 214 for 276 and the win.

Plus we’ll likely win Alaska (3) for 279, and we’re still alive in Nevada (6) for a max of 285.

An account called “Data Orbital” on Twitter says they believe Trump is going to carry Arizona eventually:

But I want recounts in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was ahead in those states, then the vote counting “stopped,” and then when we woke up this morning somehow Biden was ahead by razor-thin margins. There’s some funny business that went down in those states. It just doesn’t seem right that Trump could win big in Ohio, win Pennsylvania but lose Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s possible, for sure, but it just doesn’t jibe with the voting trends of the upper-Midwest overall. Trump won Ohio by over 8%. He won Iowa big. He’s done extraordinarily well in PA thus far. He won Indiana by 20%. It just doesn’t make sense that Michigan and Wisconsin would go the other way. Again, it’s possible–I’m not saying it’s impossible–it’s just strange.

Still, though: if the Democrats lose, they’ll take this to the courts, which will get appealed up to the Supreme Court. So that’s why I believe that no matter what happens in the next few days, this thing is going to the highest court in the land.

Other takeaways:

  • Trump is said to be “undermining democracy” by calling out the people who are actually undermining democracy. That’s how this works. Stealing elections is perfectly fine. NOTICING the Democrats stealing elections? Threat to our democracy!
  • We are a 50/50 nation: Yes, Not Trump is ahead in the popular vote by about 2.5 million right now, but as with Hillary in 2016, more than 100% of that margin comes solely from California, where Not Trump is currently ahead by nearly 3 million. The rest of the country is split down the middle between pro-Trump and anti-Trump, if not slightly pro-Trump. I’m not even going to refer to Biden as an actual political candidate because even his supporters know he’s little more than a way to vote against Trump. He’s “Not Trump.” And it’s remarkable that the country is so close given how the media, Hollywood, academia, public schools, social media/big tech, sports, the deep state and big businesses have gone all-in against Trump. We are not the minority in this country. This election, no matter how it plays out, was nowhere close to the resounding repudiation of Trump the ruling class was desperate for.
  • The polls: If you read this site I’m sure you were with me the whole time that the polls were massively, stupendously wrong in 2020. I’ll only pull a few examples real quickly because I could go on for hours with this, but on Monday there were 5 polls of Florida released: Biden +5, Biden +4, Biden +3, Trump +1, Trump +2. The closest to the actual result (Trump +3.5%) was the Trump +2 which was conducted by Trafalgar. A CNBC poll of Michigan had Biden +7 on Monday; the state is currently within a percentage point. Six polls of PA came out Monday: Biden +7, Biden +5, Biden +4, Biden +3, Trump +2, Trump +1. The two that had Trump ahead were Trafalgar (+2) and Susquehanna (+1). Trafalgar comes away from this as the only reputable pollster, along with the Selzer poll of Iowa, which nailed Trump’s margin basically perfectly. Do not trust the mainstream media polls at all. Completely ignore them from now on.
  • Hispanic voters: Exit polls show Biden won Hispanics 66-32 over Trump, which represents a decent improvement over Hillary’s 66-28 margin over Trump in 2016. But that’s not the full story. Trump did fantastic with Hispanics in Florida and Texas. I think if you exclude California, Trump ran pretty damn close with Hispanics in the remaining 49 states. Democrats’ dream of a permanent majority enabled by maintaining a lock on the minority vote seems to be fading. Long-term, I see the GOP turning into a multi-racial working class/middle class/small business-owner party.
  • Black voters: exit polls show Trump increased his support with black voters from 8% in 2016 to 12%. That may not seem like a lot, but it’s the best a Republican has done with black voters since 1996.
  • Fox News is dead to conservatives: The Big Tell was Chris Wallace’s disgraceful conduct as “moderator” in the first debate. He went full liberal. Then, last night, they didn’t call Florida even though it was already decided. They didn’t call Texas when it was already decided. They waited a long time to call Ohio. Yet they were calling states for Biden before a single vote was even recorded (i.e. Virginia). But most egregious was them calling Arizona last night despite nearly a million ballots from election day (heavily Trump) still outstanding. It’s now looking like Trump has a decent shot to win Arizona today. Fox’s “news” coverage is dead and buried. The only redeeming aspect of Fox News is the opinion content, like Tucker, Hannity, Ingraham, Gutfeld, etc.
  • We’re Going to Keep the Senate: That’s the way it’s looking right now at least. So even if Biden wins, this is a decent consolation prize. Of course, Biden could still undo all of Trump’s executive orders quite easily.

We will be fine no matter what happens. I know it seems like this is the end of the world, but I promise you it’s not. Every election in my lifetime has felt like a life and death matter. Life will go on. This country is in much better shape than you think it is. The media is largely to blame for our perceptions of the country.

Whether Trump or Biden wins, the virus will probably go away pretty quickly. The Democrats only cared about it as a means to attack Trump.

Even when the riots were raging over the summer, it’s still true that over 95% of Americans were completely unaffected by them and, had they not been on social media or watched the news, probably would have not even known they were happening.

There’s more to life than politics. It’s becoming increasingly clear that focusing too much on politics is bad for you and bad for the nation.

We always laugh at the libs who think they’re all going to be stripped of their rights and shipped off to gulags if a Republican wins, but we’re guilty of the same delusional hysteria.

We need to pull back from the ledge here. It’s going be fine. We will get through this one way or another.

Tweet of the Day (So Far)

It’s a perfect tweet. I can’t add anything more. Except for this, from Matt Taibbi, who wrote the following about Biden, the man who will supposedly bring civility back to America:

Joe Biden is a corpse with hair plugs whose idea of “empathy” is to jam fingers in the sternums of people who ask the wrong questions, or call them “fat” or “full of shit,” or dare them to “try me” — and that’s if he remembers what state he’s in.

Final Florida Early Voting Numbers, Trump Campaign Confident, And Why the Polls Are Rigged For Biden

Early voting is officially done in Florida. The only votes remaining will be those that come in tomorrow on Election Day, and those votes will skew heavily for Trump.

Biden finished early voting with a 112k vote lead in Florida, and that is not likely to be enough to hold off the Trump Wave coming tomorrow:

This is great news for the Trump campaign.

There’s more of an in-depth breakdown on the site, which shows how many outstanding “4/4 voters” each party has outstanding. A 4/4 voter is someone who has voted for the same party in the past four elections. So for example a 4/4 Republican voter is someone who voted Republican in 2016, 2012, 2008 and 2004. These are considered highly reliable voters to turn out for 2020:

Democrats only have about 79k 4/4 voters left, while Republicans have 253k 4/4 voters in Florida outstanding, which is a good sign for Republicans. It means they have a net advantage in 4/4 voters outstanding of about 174k, meaning they should be able to make up for the Democrats’ 112k early vote gap. And of course this is only 4/4 voters, there are many other types voters out there.

As for independent 4/4 voters remaining:

The site estimates that there are about 65k unaffiliated (independent) 4/4 voters that haven’t voted yet. The site also estimates that the split will be about 52/47 in favor of the Democrats, based purely on the D/R split of the counties these unaffiliated voters live in.

This translates into 33,800 votes that will probably go Biden, and 30,550 that will probably go Trump. This is only a net advantage of 3,250 votes for Biden, which is not going to be enough.

Again, this is all estimates and projections. The results on election day could be different. But all indications are that Trump will win election day by a wide margin, including in all the big swing states.

Nick Trainer, the man in charge of the Trump campaign’s battleground strategy, was extremely candid about where things stand in the swing states, and he seems highly confident going into election day. This article appeared in the Washington Examiner and if Trainer is right, it portends great things for Trump:

“In a lot of places across the country, Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy.

In a detailed review of the key states and upcoming voting, Trainer said that the campaign and the Republican National Committee’s get-out-the-vote effort is set up to push even “low propensity” Trump voters to the polls.

“This is what it was built for,” he said, predicting reelection.

In a call to reporters to suggest that the Biden campaign plans to drag out the election vote counting, Trainer turned to the current voting to declare that the Democrat’s lead in early voting is about to go poof.

He went over every major swing state and here was his outlook on each:

Ohio. “Starting in Ohio, Joe Biden wasted time today to go to Ohio. Weeks ago, the partisan makeup of the electorate in Ohio was Democrats plus-10%. Today, it’s Democrats 0.6%. Going into Election Day in 2016, that gap was Democrats plus-2.5%. President Trump has a projected Election Day margin of over 400,000 net votes in Ohio.”

North Carolina. “In North Carolina, where the president was this morning, Democrats jumped out to a partisan advantage of D plus-32. Today it is D 5.8. Going into Election Day 2016, the partisan advantage was Democrats plus-9.7%. Again, President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes.”

Pennsylvania. “Democrats have banked a ton of high propensity voters, voters that were going to vote anyway have cast their ballot by mail. We have millions of voters left in Pennsylvania for the president. President Trump’s Election Day margin needs to be big, and it will. We currently project he’ll win the Election Day vote in Pennsylvania by over 1 million votes.”

Arizona. “Don Jr. is out in Arizona right now. Weeks ago, the makeup of that electorate was D plus-11.9%. After significant early voting, it is now down to D plus-1.2%. The gap on Election Day in 2016, D plus-2.5%. President Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000 votes.”

Florida: “Democrats jumped out to an 18.8% partisan advantage during the [absentee-only] voting period. Today, it’s down to 1%. Going into Election Day 2016, the gap was 1.4%. President Trump has an Election Day margin of over 500,000 net ballots.”

Wisconsin. “In Wisconsin, the makeup of the electorate weeks ago, D plus-12.3%. Today, D plus-5.9%. Going into Election Day 2016, that gap was D plus-9.6%. We’ll win Election Day in Wisconsin by over 100,000 votes.”

Nevada: “Democrats jumped out to a 27.3% lead during [absentee ballot voting] only. Today, after significant early voting period, it’s down to D plus-5%. Election Day 2016, it was D plus-7.9%. President Trump has an Election Day margin in Nevada of 50,000 votes.”

Michigan: “They’ve got, again, a ton of high propensity voters in Michigan. And we have nearly 2 million votes for President Trump left. President Trump will need to win Election Day in Michigan by about 350,000 votes. And today, we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes in President Trump’s favor.”

He concluded, “It’s pretty simple out there. If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate, still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow as they’ve been telling us for well over two years now, President Trump is going to have four more years.”

So he seems confident. The voter enthusiasm is decisively in Trump’s favor–in other words, these voters are more likely than not to show up tomorrow.

Over the weekend, Trump held a rally in Butler, PA, which is about 30 miles north of Pittsburgh. The crowd there was incredible. They estimated that 40-50k people attended:

I think Trump is looking good going into tomorrow. I expect he’ll win, but the elephant in the room is voter fraud. How much of it will the Democrats get? It’s impossible to speculate, but it’s just worth pointing out that everything we’ve discussed above has been assuming an election carried out on the up-and-up.

Finally, I want to discuss the polls a bit. I see a lot of Democrats pointing to the polls as reason for confidence in a Biden win, and this is shaping up to be a bad situation if/when Trump wins.

The Democrats are convinced they’re going to win solely because of the polls.

Now they’re in the mindset that if Trump wins, it will be because he cheated to win via “voter suppression” or some other myth like that.

In other words, they believe the polls are right, not the votes.

Which is an absurd thing to believe, but millions of Democrats out there believe just that. This is shaping up to be a big problem in the coming days.

The media has brainwashed Democrat voters to an incredible extent. Many of them have more faith in the polls than they do the voting results. Obviously a lot of this can be explained by motivated reasoning/confirmation bias, i.e. the Democrats believing only the things that tell them what they want to hear.

But this is why the polls are rigged in Biden’s favor: so Democrat voters refuse to accept the results tomorrow night.

Biden’s Lead in Florida Gets Even Smaller

On Wednesday, Biden’s early-vote lead in Florida 204k.

Yesterday it was 163k.

Today at around 7:15 eastern time, it is down to 114k:

While Dems could have a late push in these last few days, the trend has been strong towards Trump all week long. Biden’s lead went down by almost 50k just today alone.

Florida is in the bag for Trump, and the Dems know it.

Biden’s Lead in Florida Continues to Shrink

Yesterday I wrote about how Trump already has Florida in the bag because the early voting numbers that have come in for Biden thus far have not been anywhere near as strong as he needs them to be. Yesterday night at this time, Biden’s lead was around 204k.

24 hours later, it’s even lower–just 163k votes overall:

Again, this is in-person early votes + votes by mail.

Democrats are getting the vast majority of their votes this year early, and specifically by mail, while Trump will win election day by a significant margin.

Democrats are afraid of the virus and are all-in on mail-in voting. They are badgering their voters daily to vote early by mail. They don’t have much left coming in for them on election day.

A lead of 163k votes is not going to cut it. Trump will more than make that up on election day. Add on to this the fact that Biden’s lead shrank by about 40,000 votes in one day (about 20%!) and it’s pretty clear: Florida is in the bag for Team Trump.

Florida Is In The Bag For Trump

There’s a great website out there called “Joe Is Done” and it’s tracking Florida early voting with updates something like every 20 minutes. As of right now, about 7pm eastern time, Democrats have a lead of about 203,000 early votes over Republicans.

This might sound like bad news, but it’s actually great news: because Republicans are going to clean up on election day, whereas Democrats, due to their misplaced fears of 😨THE VIRUS 😨, are overwhelmingly voting by mail this year.

The site says that Biden needs around an 8% lead in the early votes by election day in order to have a shot of winning Florida overall. Biden’s advantage right now? 1.3%.

Here’s the most recent numbers:

As for the acronyms: IPEV = In-person early voting. VBM = Vote by mail. EV = early vote.

It’s estimated that Biden will need about a 650k total early vote lead on election day, and he’s only at 204k right now.

CNBC’s Jake Novak, a former Larry Kudlow staffer, put out a video on Monday basically saying Florida is in the bag for Trump, and that the Biden people will know this for certain by Tuesday, Wednesday at the latest:

On Monday, Biden’s total early vote advantage was over 300k. Now it’s just over 200k. So it’s actually swinging hard towards Trump.

7,313,707 people in Florida have already voted, which according to the site is 77.6% of the 2016 total turnout. That number was about 9.1 million. This means that if turnout in 2020 is identical to 2016, there’s a little under 1.8 million votes still left to be cast in Florida.

According to the Florida Department of State’s webpage on early voting, “The early voting period must start at least on the 10th day before the election and end on the 3rd day before the election. In addition, supervisors of elections have the option to offer more early voting on the 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, or 2nd day before an election.”

Meaning the early voting period ends, I believe, on the 31st, or in some counties the 1st of November. There’s still three more days of early voting left after today, but things look very good for Trump. He’s way ahead of where he needs to be going into election day.

This whole election was always going to hinge on whether Republicans could remain within striking distance throughout the early voting period so that their superior turnout on election day could more than make up the difference.

It just doesn’t look like Democrats have the early vote enthusiasm they were banking on–at least in Florida. And, as Ace of Spades points out, also in North Carolina as well.

None of this should be a surprise. Democrats hate Trump, but they are not excited about Joe Biden. He does not generate enthusiasm. Hating Trump might be enough to motive hardcore liberals to vote, but it’s not going to get the less politically-engaged people out to the polls. It’s just not going to cut it.

Finally, things are even looking good for Trump in Nevada, where Las Vegas-based journalist (and obvious Biden-lover) John Ralston writes:

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark — they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Trump has a great shot in Nevada, too.

Amy Coney-Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court, Liberal Women “Literally Shaking”

It’s official:

She was confirmed in a ceremony at the White House tonight. She is officially a Supreme Court Justice.

Technically this makes it a 6-3 Republican majority, with only Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan being Democratic-appointed justices. But it’s really more like a 5-4 conservative majority given that Chief Justice Roberts is drifting further and further to the left in recent years.

We needed Barrett because we have essentially lost Roberts.

I was going to write about the libs’ predictable freakout over this, but in all honestly they haven’t been that bad. it’s mostly limited to social media. They’re not even rioting!

But also, I just don’t care what they say anymore. They don’t live in the real world. They are totally delusional and brainwashed. They have no grasp of reality.

What they say doesn’t matter.

They are shouting into the void.

We win. Barrett is on the court for life. Trump has now appointed three Supreme Court justices in just one term. Even if he loses next week, he has still left a lasting mark on the Supreme Court.

And there’s nothing the Democrats can do about it other than make empty threats to “expand the court.”

The Polls Are Wrong

Ace of Spades had some great thoughts on the election:

I was observing some politicos I know. They’re having a hard time squaring the current polling with what they know anecdotally.

They all note this: Of all the people they know — including RINOs and squishes and NeverTrumpers who voted against Trump in 2016 — many of the NeverTrumpers are now reluctant Trump voters, and many of 2016’s reluctant Trump voters are now enthusiastic Trump voters.

On the other hand, they don’t know anyone who has moved from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden.

One friend tells me that the suburban well-to-do Wine Moms and Squish Sisters he knows are now fully on the MAGA train. Everyone they know who’s moved on The Trump Question (and Trump seems to be the only issue in 2020) has moved in favor of Trump.

They also note that the “Shy Trumper” effect — where Trump supporters won’t admit to pollsters they still support Trump — is still strong, based on their own experience.

One relates that he did not tell his own children that he voted for Trump, due to social pressure and the idea that he didn’t want to “normalize” Trump’s bad behavior to his children.

If you can’t tell your own kids you voted for Trump, you’re not going to tell a pollster.

And this person works in conservative politics, too!

If even people in the conservative movement can’t admit they’re Trump supporters — well good luck getting Wendy Wine Mom to admit that on the phone.

A friend of mine was a hardcore NeverTrumper in 2016 but now is a crawl-over-broken-glass Trump Voter. No, he doesn’t really like Trump, but unlike Jonah Goldberg and Steve Schmidt, he recognizes the profound threat the left poses to what is left of America.

He has kept in touch with his NeverTrump pals. Media types. The types who annoy you on Twitter.

And while he won’t Name Names, he tells me that many of the NeverTrumpers I hate are now “red pilled” Trump voters. They just won’t admit it publicly:

“There are people who you all know that I know are voting Trump that would legit shock you. These people have moved to [supporting Trump] in this scenario. And then there’s plenty of people like me who didn’t vote for Trump and are now enthusiastically doing it this time around. I too worry about being in a bubble, but this story is repeated constantly by everyone. I literally have not heard a single 2016 Trump supporter say they’re flipping this year.”

Another point made: If there were a lot of Trump defectors, the media would be profiling them and lionizing them and promoting them 24-7.

But I haven’t seen a single story about Trump 2016-Biden 2020 defectors.

The media hasn’t found any — despite the fact that by announcing that you’re now a full-on Democrat Liberal, you gain employment opportunities and social prestige.

So if the media can’t find any of these people… do they even exist?

One more point, from Vashta Nerada: “Biden is so far ahead, he is campaigning in states Clinton won in 2016.”

There is more social stigma on being a Trump supporter now than there was in 2016. Of course the Shy Trump Voter phenomenon is real.

Like Vashta Nerada pointed out, Biden is campaigning in states Hillary won in 2016. Those states would be Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire. The media downplays stuff like this, but it’s happening.

And these white suburban wine moms that supposedly are abandoning Trump and flocking to Biden–they never supported Trump in the first place.

This idea that Trump has lost support from women since becoming President is nonsense. All the pussyhats and “Nasty Women” were hardcore Hillary supporters from the start.

If anything, the suburbs have shifted even more to Trump due to the riots.

I don’t know a single person who voted for Trump in 2016 but isn’t voting for him now. I know plenty of people who didn’t support him in 2016 but support him now. Yes, it’s anecdotal evidence, but I’m sure I’m not the only one who has a story like this. I keep hearing this same thing from other people.

The polls are wrong. Biden is not up 16. He’s not on pace to win one of the biggest landslides in US history. I don’t know where the race truly stands, but the media is promoting this false narrative that the country is just so disgusted by Trump’s “unpresidentialness” that they just want him gone and they don’t care who replaces him.

It’s just not true. People in the media live in a bubble where everyone’s life revolves around burning, intense hatred of Donald Trump 24/7, so they think that’s how the whole country feels. They think everyone else wakes up mad about Trump and goes to sleep mad about Trump. It’s just not true. The media is completely out of touch.

They have no idea what’s coming on November 3rd.