The Palace Intrigue

This is a few weeks old, but it’s worth highlighting: Bari Weiss hosted Washington Post foreign policy reporter Josh Rogin on her Honestly podcast to talk about the Chinese government and the origin of the coronavirus. You may recall that Rogin was the reporter who broke the story last year about diplomatic cables which warnedContinue reading “Lab Leak Theory: Wuhan Lab Workers Lost Sense of Taste and Smell Back in 2019”

For the vast majority of the vaccinated, getting the shot is not a political statement. They just implicitly trust the government and the big pharma companies that make the vaccine, and they figure getting the vaccine is simply the Right Thing to Do. Well, now they’re starting to realize the vaccine can have very realContinue reading “College Athlete Gets Myocarditis 4 Days After Getting Covid Vaccine, Posts Video Warning Others”

Interesting: Fauci replies: “You know, that’s a really good point, Sanjay. I don’t have a firm answer for you on that. That’s something that we’re going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response. The one thing the paper from Israel [which found that natural immunity is better than vaccine immunity] didn’t tellContinue reading “Fauci Can’t Explain Why People With Natural Immunity to Covid Should Still Get Vaccinated”

Via the Telegraph. It’s behind a paywall, but the bottom line is that “young males are six times more likely to suffer from heart problems after being jabbed than be hospitalized from Covid.” The vaccine fanatics will probably point out that it’s still highly unlikely that someone will suffer heart issues after taking the vaccine–thatContinue reading “Vaccines More Dangerous for Teenage Boys Than Covid Itself”

This comes via ZH on Twitter: We see pretty similar numbers in terms of new cases of Covid among the vaxed and the un-vaxed. Unvaxed are a bit higher than fully vaxed, but if you combine fully vaxed with partially vaxed, vaccinated are around 60% of the new cases. However, in terms of severe casesContinue reading “CITIGROUP: Vaccinated in Scotland Dying of Covid at 3x the Rate of Unvaccinated”

They’re going to force companies with over 100 employees to mandate vaccines for all employees: Protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated? Isn’t that what the vaccines were supposed to do? Guess this is his roundabout way of saying the vaccines don’t work. I see a lot of people on social media saying “He can’t doContinue reading “BIDEN: We Must Protect The Vaccinated from the Unvaccinated”

Vaccines have never been about conferring immunity. Wherever would you get that crazy idea? Vaccines have always been about mitigation. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Massie included links to the archived versions of the CDC’s website which show all the different definitions of the word vaccine. Boy, I don’t want to soundContinue reading “CDC CHANGES DEFINITION OF WORD “VACCINE” BECAUSE THE COVID VACCINES ARE FAILING”

I’ve been writing a lot about Ivermectin lately. In fact, it’s largely what motivated me to come back to this site and start writing here again. I’ve been reading lots of studies and reading lots of articles from “alternative” news sources about using Ivermectin to treat Covid, and it all seems really promising. If youContinue reading “WHICH SIDE IS LYING ABOUT IVERMECTIN?”

I’m done trying to convince the libs that Democrats are bad and Republicans are good. This is because I no longer believe the Republicans are good. They’re better, in general, than the Democrats, but that is not saying much at all. It’s like saying Ted Bundy isn’t as bad as Jeffrey Dahmer. I’m now tryingContinue reading “THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DOESN’T GIVE A FUCK ABOUT YOU”

The de-worming drug Ivermectin has been in the news lately. Joe Rogan says he took it and it helped cure him of Covid in three days. The Science Trusters™ on social media are irate at the idea that the vaccine is not the savior of mankind. And of course the shameless, bald-faced liars in theContinue reading “WHY ARE THE BLUE CHECKS BLATANTLY LYING ABOUT IVERMECTIN?”

From the New York Times: So the 9-month booster shot isn’t a good idea? Who’d have thunk it? It is not normal for a vaccine to require booster shots less than a year in. Man, I thought the Biden Administration had this all under control? I thought the Adults In The Room were going toContinue reading “Health Officials to White House: Chill on All that Booster Shot Talk”

There has been a ton of commotion over the Covid vaccine in the NFL and whether it plays a factor in players getting cut. Jaguars coach Urban Meyer recently said that a player’s vaccination status was “certainly in consideration” when making roster cuts, although the team tried to walk those comments back a bit byContinue reading “PATRIOTS HEAD COACH BILL BELICHICK POINTS OUT THE OBVIOUS”

A few days ago, Joe Rogan posted that he caught Covid while on the road, then “immediately threw the kitchen sink at it”: Today he just posted that he is now Negative for Covid: Immediately the NPCs on Twitter got pissed, calling it a “publicity stunt” and basically saying Joe Rogan was lying about theContinue reading “UN-VAXED JOE ROGAN CURED OF COVID USING IVERMECTIN, OTHER “UNORTHODOX” TREATMENTS”

This is a pretty serious warning from Fed Governor Lael Brainard: The latest Financial Stability Report provides valuable analysis to track increases in financial system vulnerabilities. I would highlight a few areas. Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising. Valuations across a range of asset classes have continued to rise from levels that wereContinue reading “FED GOV. BRAINARD WARNS MARKETS “VULNERABLE” DUE TO VORACIOUS RISK APPETITES”

It’s an extreme example, I know, but it’s worth bearing in mind: How can this be? A country undergoing hyperinflation and economic collapse sees its stock market explode higher? When the value of a nation’s currency goes down due to inflation, its stock market may increase, sometimes by a lot. Say a stock is tradingContinue reading “VENEZUELA’S STOCK MARKET SKYROCKETED DURING THEIR HYPERINFLATION”

Lumber prices are through the roof: Lumber prices got pretty crazy in 2018, but this is something else entirely. Lumber prices are more than quadruple their average price (<=~400 over the past 5 years). Copper is going crazy, too: Food prices are going up across the board: And while cattle prices (i.e. beef) have remainedContinue reading “INFLATION”

Some random dude made a crypto currency called “SCAM Coin,” or Simple Cool Automatic Money (lmfaoooo) and within hours it had a market cap of over $70 million. TikToker makes ‘scamcoin’ as a joke and within an hour it’s worth ~$70mln lmao. pic.twitter.com/dmEAdNUG6Z — TikTok Investors (@TikTokInvestors) April 22, 2021 Yeah, it’s a bubble.

We all know home prices are back up around 2006 levels. This has led people to say we’re in another housing bubble. But while housing prices have definitely taken off over the past year or so, it does not necessarily mean it’s 2006 all over again. There is a one very big difference this timeContinue reading “HOUSING BUBBLE 2.0? NOT SO FAST….”

Seems like something you’d see at the top:

The other day I wrote that the Nasdaq was in a range and likely to break out of it by the end of March. Well, here we are: We still need to see it clear the 13600 level, but given today’s gap up I think it’s probably going to happen sometime next week. Remember, marketsContinue reading “NASDAQ BREAKS OUT TO UPSIDE, S&P 500 FINALLY HITS 4000 LEVEL”

This is based on data through February, but still: The Q-ratio measures the market value of all the companies that comprise the stock market vs. the intrinsic value of those companies. It’s a market-wide valuation measure just like the CAPE ratio, which tracks P/Es. While it’s clear from the Q-ratio that the market is extremelyContinue reading “TOBIN Q-RATIO HIGHEST EVER”

A multi-billion dollar hedge fund blowing up and being forced to liquidate its holdings would be a significant negative shock to the markets, you’d assume. Right? Last night, after I first read about the Bill Hwang Archegos situation, I figured today would be a bloodbath–not just in stocks tied to Archegos, but across the board.Continue reading “MARKETS RESILIENT DESPITE ARCHEGOS BLOWUP”

This is why I’m ultimately bearish on TSLA long-term: the automotive sector is historically extremely competitive, and Tesla will not be the only major player in the field for much longer. Volkswagen in particular is already hot on Tesla’s heels. Bloomberg’s article: VW last year became the No. 1 electric-vehicle maker in Europe, where sales of battery-poweredContinue reading “BLOOMBERG: TRADITIONAL AUTOMAKERS “CATCHING UP FAST” TO TESLA IN EV SPACE”

I am very bullish on PLTR over the long-haul. I think it’s very pricey right now even at $21.90 a share, but over the next 5-10 years it will grow tremendously. Palantir just announced the release of a Google Chrome extension called PhishCatch, which is like password security and, as the name implies, anti-phishing measures.Continue reading “PALANTIR LAUNCHES CHROME EXTENSION CALLED “PHISHCATCH””

There’s about 24 minutes til market close and the Nasdaq is puking. Yesterday I pointed out that the Nasdaq was in a wedge formation but it appears it has now broken out of that to the downside and is sitting on critical support at around 13,000: We’ve seen the Nasdaq bounce off 13,000 at leastContinue reading “NASDAQ ON CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVEL”

A bearish divergence is when price action is making higher highs, but RSI is making lower highs. It means the rally is running out of steam. It generally means the market is heading for a major selloff. Have a look: Since early 2018, the S&P 500 has been making higher highs, but the RSI hasContinue reading “LONG-TERM BEARISH DIVERGENCE SEEN IN S&P 500 RSI”

The trading range is narrowing: The lines are converging on March 30. I suspect that sometime in the next week or so we will see a significant move in the Nasdaq. Will it be up or down? Tough to say. Generally when we see a symmetrical wedge pattern on the chart, we assume the breakoutContinue reading “SIGNIFICANT NASDAQ MOVE IMMINENT?”

This chart made rounds last year, but it deserves a re-up: During regular market hours (9:30am-4pm EST, M-F), markets have made basically zero gains since 1993. But outside of regular trading hours, meaning pre-market and after-market trading hours (4am-9:30am, 4pm-8pm), the market has gained nearly 600%. This is an eye-opening chart. So what does itContinue reading “ALL STOCK GAINS SINCE 1993 HAVE HAPPENED AFTER-HOURS”

The other day I wrote about the idea that stocks can’t be in a bubble if everyone knows we’re in a bubble. I argued that it’s indeed possible for a variety of reasons, but now we have this poll of fund managers from Bank of America that shows only 15% actually think stocks are inContinue reading “B OF A SURVEY: ONLY 15% OF FUND MANAGERS THINK STOCKS ARE IN A BUBBLE”

When it comes to markets, I try to be agnostic about the data. In other words, I try not to allow data to sway me too much, because for every data point and the accompanying conclusions about the market people draw from it, there’s usually a contradictory data-point out there that, accordingly, leads others toContinue reading “WHAT IF THE REOPENING DOESN’T LEAD TO A SPIKE IN INFLATION?”

Shiller P/E levels compared with the 10 Yr. yield by decade: Starting with 1870-1900, we can see that interest rates were falling, and stock valuations were rising. 1900-1920: Interest rates were on the rise, stock valuations were in decline. Remember that the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913, and it was just starting to comeContinue reading “A CLOSER LOOK AT INTEREST RATES & STOCK VALUATIONS”

This might be the most important chart of them all: Observations: In the 1890s, you can see that as interest rates dipped, stock valuations spiked. But then between 1900-1920, when interest rates were rising, stock valuations plunged. The Roaring ’20s coincided with falling interest rates. A miniscule uptick in interest rates in 1929 coincided withContinue reading “STOCK VALUATIONS VS. INTEREST RATES”

We might just be in the endgame now: Great headline by New York Times: a .JPG file just sold for $69 million. I think we’ll see this record broken at some point in the near future, too. We will probably see the first $100 million NFT.

That’s the common refrain from people who are skeptical of the claim we’re in a bubble. Before I get into my response, I want to first put out the disclaimer that I’m not 100% certain we’re in a bubble. I’m like 85% sure we’re in a bubble. But you have no way of knowing forContinue reading “HOW CAN WE BE IN A BUBBLE IF EVERYONE KNOWS WE’RE IN A BUBBLE?”

Monthly RSI on the Russell 2000 index is now at 74, which is higher than all but a few instances in the past 25 years: Here are the prior instances where Russell 2000 RSI was as high as it is today, and how long it stayed above that level: July 2 – Sept. 4, 2018:Continue reading “RUSSELL 2000 RSI REACHES RAREFIED AIR”

I saw this tweet a moment ago: They happen a lot during bear markets, in fact some of the greenest days ever come during bear markets. They trick bulls into thinking the selling is over with. Here’s Investopedia’s definition: A bear Market Rally refers to a sharp, short-term price increase in a stock or marketContinue reading “BEAR MARKET RALLIES (A.K.A. “BULL TRAPS)”

Recently I wrote that the Energy and Financials sectors are no longer undervalued and are in fact now getting into overheated territory. Tech is very overbought even still after this selloff. I wanted to look at the rest of the S&P 500 sector ETFs to see if any of them are decent values. My assumptionContinue reading “WHICH S&P 500 SECTORS, IF ANY, ARE BARGAINS RIGHT NOW?”

With still a half hour left til close, the Nasdaq is up 4.24%, the S&P is up 1.95% and the Dow, yesterday’s darling, was up 0.62%. Tech absolutely exploded higher today, led by Tesla which is currently up nearly 20% on the day. A lot of people are proudly proclaiming that the tech selloff isContinue reading “INSANE TECH P/E RATIOS EVEN AFTER SELL-OFF”

Much has been made about the sector rotation from tech to “value,” e.g. things like Energy, Financials and value ETFs. I already went over XLF in an earlier post, and concluded that it was highly overbought and all the “easy gains” have already been made. There is not a lot of upside left in XLF,Continue reading “TIME TO BUY “VALUE”?”

In 2020, Tesla represented 79% of the US electric vehicle market: The next-largest player in the EV market was Chevy with just 8%. At its peak share price of $900, Tesla had a market cap of $821 billion. After the recent sell-off, Tesla’s market cap is still a sizable $525 billion. What if, over time,Continue reading “IS THIS SUSTAINABLE?”

Dow at all time highs, Nasdaq down over 10%: Obviously stuff like this doesn’t happen very often, at least as it pertains to the Dow and the Nasdaq. So it’s difficult to take much from this data point because it happens so infrequently. Something is only predictive of future market direction if it is repeatedlyContinue reading “LARGEST DISCONNECT BETWEEN DOW & NASDAQ SINCE 1993”

Rejected: You can see that the ~12900 level, which has represented support 6 different times this year, is now acting as resistance for the Nasdaq index. That’s the neckline of the head and shoulders top. The Nasdaq got slammed today, losing 2.41% from its prior close, despite briefly rising all the way to 13001 inContinue reading “NASDAQ FAILS TO CLEAR NECKLINE RESISTANCE, CLOSES AT LOWS”

This graphic via Urban Carmel on Twitter: Other than 1994, rising 10 year yields are usually pretty good for stocks. The two best stretches of this current bull market other than the initial rally from the March 2009 bottom–2013 and 2017–featured rising bond yields. One thing I will say about the current stock drop asContinue reading “S&P 500 HISTORICALLY DOES WELL WHEN THE 10-YEAR IS RISING”

I recently watched the Bloomberg interview with Jeremy Grantham, the well-known investor who has been loudly predicting another 1929 or 2000-style market collapse. Whether you agree or disagree with his prediction, it’s still a great interview, and someone with the stature of Grantham should not be ignored when he issues major warnings about the market.Continue reading “HOW LONG DOES A MARKET TOPPING PROCESS TAKE?”

I know everybody likes Palantir. It seems like everybody is bullish on it. I routinely see videos on YouTube with people putting out stuff like “PLTR: $100 a share?!” People are insanely bullish on PLTR, and among the “Palantards,” it’s basically assumed that Palantir is set to be the next FAANG stock. As in it’sContinue reading “WHY I LIKE PALANTIR (FOR THE LONG-TERM)”

My last post about inflation was a lengthy, jumbled mess. It’s a complex topic to say the least. I just came across this post by Michael Batinick, though, and he says what I was trying to say much more efficiently and clearly. It’s an excellent piece and one I highly recommend reading in its entiretyContinue reading “CLARIFIED THOUGHTS ON INFLATION”

With the recent spike in the 10 year bond yield, many are talking about the prospect of increasing inflation in the very near future. Goldbugs and permabears have been predicting Weimar Germany-levels of hyperinflation since 2009, and while they’ve been continually proven wrong for over a decade, this time, they claim, they’re right: we’re aboutContinue reading “SHOULD WE BE AFRAID OF INFLATION?”

This morning was an absolute bloodbath. At one point TSLA was down over 10% on the day. PLTR was down more than 15% on the day. The Nasdaq dipped as low as 12397 before rallying over 500 points to finish 12920. From the lows to the close, it was a 4.3% rally, just ridiculous. DoesContinue reading “MARKETS STAGE MASSIVE RALLY OFF THE LOWS”

In my last post I laid out all the reasons I think the market will soon crash and enter a secular bear market of sideways trading for several years. In this post I want to lay out the counter-argument for why that’s wrong: If we entered a secular bull market in 2009, which was confirmedContinue reading “SELF-REBUTTAL: THE MARKET IS *NOT* GOING TO CRASH”

The market always reverts back to the Big Line eventually: That’s the trendline going all the way back to 1932. At the market bottom of 1942, prices were the same as they were in 1901. At the market bottom in 1974, prices were the same as they were in 1959. At the market bottom inContinue reading “IS THE MARKET GOING TO CRASH?”

While there’s no guarantee this is the end of the selloff in the markets, we have seen a nice turnaround in the Nasdaq starting this morning. After a sharp drop at the open, the Nasdaq index hit an intraday low of 12517, marking just shy of a 10% drop from its intraday all-time high ofContinue reading “BUY THE BREAKOUT IN XLF?”

My belief is that because the post-crash rally (late March 2020-present) was so blisteringly-fast, and because we are now already well above where we were pre-Covid in the markets, basically the entire Covid recovery, which is actually happening IRL in the next few months, is already priced in to the markets, essentially. The markets areContinue reading “IT’S ALREADY PRICED IN”

As you can see from the long-term chart, it has been quite the rally in the 10 year yield. But it also comes after a massive drop.

Lately there’s been a lot of chatter about cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been going bananas lately and now as of the time of this writing, one Bitcoin is worth nearly $50,000. At the same time, the most Memeable cryptocurrency around, Dogecoin, has exploded from being worth less than one penny to being worth around 5 cents.Continue reading “DOGECOIN vs. BITCOIN”

This might be the last post on this website, at least for a while. Look, I’m just done with politics. I have simply accepted the fact that we live in a deeply corrupt country where democracy is now a complete sham. We are every bit as illiberal as the places we Americans used to lookContinue reading “I’m Done With Politics”